Instead of predicting a future, it is more realistic to use scenario planning to derive a robust strategy that plans for a range of possibilities. Tim O’Reilly, who wrote the famous Web 2.0 article 15 years ago, shares his view on the post Covid-19 future.
According to Tim, we need to be careful with conversations of going back to “normal”, because “the future will not be like the past”. He warns that the global pandemic will not just come and pass, but will resemble more “The Hammer and the Dance”.
“Countries drop the hammer to reduce cases, yet reopen their economies, see recurrences, and will have to drop the hammer again with the response increasingly fine-grained as better data becomes available.”
To bring it back to Hong Kong, this Harvard Business Review article talks about the impact on companies in Hong Kong with the new security law. It emphasizes the immediate harm and possibility of a brain drain that companies who are solely targeting the local market might encounter.
Companies focusing on China “could easily find themselves caught in the crossfire between China and the United States”. Companies that target Asia may consider Singapore as an alternative, but the article predicts that relocation is not likely to happen in the short run.